Tuesday, March 25, 2008

RATES TO RISE WITH RESALE ACTIVITY?

Existing month-over-month home sales posted surprising gains in both California and Arizona last month, according to new articles which appeared this morning in the Orange County Register and Arizona Republic.

California existing home sales rose 9.5% in February, while Arizona home sales improved by 10%. A rebound in some of the harder hit housing markets around the country will almost certainly push interest rates higher as we head toward the summer months.

"We are still bumping along the bottom, but the Valley's housing market is gaining traction again," said Jim Sexton, president of Phoenix-based real-estate firm John Hall & Associates. "Sellers are getting more motivated. Prices are coming down, and there's a lot of activity from first-time home buyers again."

In Orange County, resale inventory has fallen to an 11-month low, as investors and first-time buyers are drawn back into the market by aggressively-priced foreclosure inventory. The number of homes under contract increased by 109% in February, shaving the inventory of homes from an 8.14 month supply to a 6.09 month supply.

While housing markets are local, interest rates are national. Therefore, if market conditions improve in bellweather states like California and Arizona, positively impacting the overall economy, long-term mortgage rates are almost sure to rise in response, including here in Denver.