CHECKING IN ON DENVER'S 2025 SPRING MARKET

If you have followed the Front Range real estate market for any period of time, you know that buyers tend to show up early in the year and inventory tends to rise as we get closer to the end of the school year.  This year, pendings have been almost even with 2024 but active inventory is rising... significantly.

I've always educated my clients that the optimum time for listing a home in the Denver metro area is from mid-January until about mid-May.  This is based on years of following absorption rate trends - in short, the absorption rate is a calculation that determines how many weeks (or months) it would take to sell a home based on the current pace of sales.

In 2024, for example, our lowest absorption rate occurred in April with 1.54 months of inventory (MOI)... and our highest absorption rate was in November, with 3.17 MOI.  Hence, best for sellers in the spring, and best for buyers in the fall.

In 2022, our lowest absorption rate was in February with 0.32 MOI and our highest absorption rate was again in November, at 2.45 MOI.  Again, a far better selling environment in the spring than in the fall.

If you're selling, you obviously want the greatest leverage versus buyers, which is reflected by a low absorption rate.  Conversely, if you're buying, your maximum leverage is when there are more sellers than buyers, which is reflected by an elevated absorption rate.

As of March 31, our market currently has 2.42 MOI, which is significantly higher than this time in recent years.  If fact, if you look at the absorption rate in March over the past six years, we had 1.43 MOI in 2019... 1.23 MOI in 2020... 0.41 MOI in 2021 (3% mortgages)... 0.43 MOI in 2022 (4% mortgages)... 1.14 MOI in 2023 (6% mortgages)... and 1.66 MOI in 2024 (closer to 7% mortgages).

This means at the current pace of sales, it would take almost 2.5 months to sell all of the homes currently on the market.  In my view, anything over 3.0 months constitutes a buyer's market. 

There are currently about 8,400 active listings on the market.  This is up 51% from the same time in 2024... up 106% from 2023... and up 383% from the unhinged crazy spring market of 2022.

What does it all mean?  Based on historical trends, 8,400 active listings in March could put us on track for 13,000 - 14,000 active listings by Labor Day, which would be the highest inventory count since 2011.  If demand remained just equal to 2024, that would equate to ell over 4.0 months of inventory.

The bottom line is that sales are still happening, but buyers have more choices... lots more choices.  To be successful in this environment, sellers needs to have a tangible value proposition... which means it either needs to shine like nothing else on the block ot be priced ultra-competitively vs recent comps.

In a related state, 35% of all homes that have gone under contract in the MLS this year have come back on the market at least once.  By comparison, in spring of 2022 this figure was 5%.  In other words, in 2022 (with 3% mortgages) 19 out of 20 homes that went under contract closed with that first buyer.  Today's it's more like two out of three.  Yikes.

The only way to combat this is to pay extreme attention to every aspect of the home selling process.  From pre-market prepwork to excellent staging to professional photography to well-promoted open houses to engagement with each and every agent who shows your listing... in this market, everything truly does matter.  

The market of 2025 has been much more segmented than in previous years.  There are most definitely hot pockets and cold pockets.  Three of my six listings this year have attracted multiple offers.  Location is a huge factor.  But so is condition and pricing.  As I've said repeatedly for the past two years, if you're selling a home, your motivation needs to be an 8, 9 or 10... not a 5, 6 or 7.  

When will things turn around?  The frustrating answer is that no one knows.  But demand repressed is not demand destroyed.  There are thousands of aspiring buyers on the sidelines, waiting for rates (or prices) to come down so that home ownership - the Great American Dream - is attainable once again.

WHAT THE FIRST FOUR WEEKS OF 2025 HAVE TAUGHT US ABOUT THE DENVER HOUSING MARKET

Two things can be true at once.

The first truth is that active housing inventory was up 57% in January versus a year ago while pendings are only up nominally.

And the second truth is, despite these much higher inventory counts, it's still the best time of year to put a home on the market.

I can't sugarcoat things here - the old market is gone.  The number of homes for sale in January was up 57% versus 2024... up 77% from January of 2023... and up (are you ready for it?) 523% from the housing market insane asylum known as January of 2022.

In other words, there are a lot of homes for sale.  And with mortgage rates in the 7% range, affordability remains severely constrained.  

Historically, we start each year with inventory at its lowest point and then inventory climbs right through the spring and summer, peaking around Labor Day.

Last year, inventory increased 129% between January and August.  In 2023, inventory climbed 75% between January and August.  If you take the average of the past two years - 102% - and then apply that to our current inventory count, it's not unreasonable to believe we could have more than 14,000 homes on the market by he middle of this summer.  That would be the most inventory we have had for sale since 2011. 

Now it is also true that demand picks up as you move into spring.  In fact, if you're looking for a silver lining, pendings were up 19% in January versus January of 2024.  So we actually have more buyers in the market right now than a year ago - we just have more new listings than new buyers.

What this means is if you have a home to sell, you can list in the current environment... with 7,000 other homes for sale.  Or wait until summer, when you could see 14,000 (or more) competing listings on the market.  The math on that is pretty clear to me.

One significant development at the end of 2024 was that more than 4,600 listings either expired or were withdrawn from the market in December.  That's the largest year-end inventory drawdown of inventory I have seen in 19 years in Colorado.  To me, this represents the dead underbrush of the market, mostly stale listings that were overpriced or just lacking an overall value proposition.

That means even though there are more listings, there is less junk.  And so for attractive homes in good areas, competition can still be a thing.  One of my Summit Home Sales partners experienced a five-offer bidding war on a $900k home backing to open space last month.  And I showed several homes to buyers in January that came off the market in a week or less.  

But it all boils down to value proposition.  

Buyers want one of two things... it either has to be in elite condition in a great location... or it needs to be priced more attractively than anything else on the block. 

The rest of the market lands in the mushy middle, and even with more buyers coming back, it's the homes with the strongest value propositions which sell first.  

IT'S JANUARY... AND THE HOME INVENTORY PICTURE JUST SHIFTED

If real estate is a supply and demand game, then the most consequential day of the year is December 31.

That's because a majority of listing agreements taken during the second half of the year have an expiration date of December 31.  And a lot of properties didn't sell during the second half of 2024, which means we are ripe for a reset.

In December, a mind-numbing 4,633 listing agreements expired in the Denver MLS, including 2,030 on December 31 alone.  That collapsed our active listing inventory from over 10,000 properties at the end of October to just 6,400 as we start the new year.

Because the market has been so sluggish, active listings were elevated throughout the year, including five consecutive months (July, July, August, September and October) where there were more than 10,000 homes for sale.  For most of 2024, active inventory was 40% - 70% higher than in 2023.

So what this giant purge really means is that the deadwood in our market has been cleared out.  The overpriced listings, unmotivated sellers and stale real estate is gone.  What you have to start the new year is a significantly smaller, better pool of homes for sale... at a time when buyers traditionally come back in much larger numbers.

There are still 6,400 homes on the market... that's well above the 4,600 we had to start 2023 and 2024 and way above the zero-inventory days of the pandemic era, when we had just 2,500 active listings in 2021 and 1,400 active listings to start 2022.  

So it doesn't automatically shift the pricing dynamics or guarantee frenzied bidding wars.  But what it does mean is that the market just became a whole lot leaner and more efficient, with fewer listings and more buyers.  It's a much better environment for sellers while most buyers won't have near the same leverage on things like seller concessions and inspection requests.  

From now until mid-May, the Denver housing market will suddenly look and feel a whole lot healthier.  At least until we see more sellers streaming back into the market in late spring when the school year comes to an end. 

IN 45 DAYS, IT'S GOING TO BE A MUCH DIFFERENT DENVER HOUSING MARKET

A year ago at this time, mortgage rates were 8% and the Denver housing market was the slowest I had seen it in the 17 years I had been in Colorado.  I closed one year-end deal and things were so grim it felt like there might not be another closing, ever.

A few weeks later, in late January, I listed a value-priced estate sale home in Centennial that attracted 70 showings and 17 offers, selling $35,000 over list... followed by a Mid-Century Modern home in a desirable part of Wheat Ridge that drew five offers and sold $40,000 over list.  

What the heck happened?  (And will it happen again?)

As those of you who have worked with me in the past know, my professional life is a collection of charts and graphs.  And these charts and graphs point to a predictable rhythm in the Denver metro housing market.

Each January, inventory begins the year at its lowest point.  At the start of 2024, there were about 4,500 active listings on the market.  Today, there are nearly 10,000.

In January of 2023, there were 4,000 homes on the market. By November, there were 7,000 active listings.

In January of 2022 (the most extreme example), there were just 1,100 active listings on the market.  By August, there were 7,000.

Reality is that buyers historically show up early in the year, but the listings don't really start to hit until May - near the end of the school year.  That window from mid-January through mid-May is what we call the "spring market" (even though it's more winter than spring).  And it's during that window that properties sell most quickly, multiple offers are most common, and the majority of appreciation for the year occurs.

We have serious affordability issues that have shrunk transaction counts by 40% since the pre-pandemic era.  But reality is, we've also had two full years of people wanting to buy sitting on the sidelines.  The repressed demand is still a real thing, and despite my many attempts to implore more buyers to be aggressive in Q4, when listings are plentiful and demand is lowest... a mysterious malaise seems to get the best of people who just shut it down for the holidays.  

Come January, we'll see a predictable surge of buyers rolling back into the market, even with rates at 7%.  Sellers who are wise will list early and have a much better experience than those who listed in Q3 or Q4, when apathy suppressed motivation.  

It won't be easy - nothing is easy anymore.  But homes will sell more quickly with less drama and buyers will forego some of the leverage that was theirs for the taking during the second half of 2024. 

Q1 and Q2 are for sellers, Q3 and Q4 are for buyers.  It's the rhythm of the Denver housing market and in just a few short weeks, the pendulum which has been so tilted in favor of buyers will swing back in the other direction.  

  

SOME (TOO EARLY) THOUGHTS ON THE 2025 DENVER HOUSING MARKET

Who wouldn't want to know where things are going in 2025?

To tackle this question just a few days before an incredibly contentious election seems a little foolhardy, but let me play the fool and I'll give you some thoughts.

TRANSACTIONS:  Coming off the lowest transaction counts since the Great Recession, I see some rebound in 2025 as both buyers (who have mostly been on the sidelines for the past two years) and sellers (who will grow slightly less attached to their 3% mortgage rates over time) loosen up a bit and decide to get on with their lives.  

After bottoming out at less than 40,000 transactions in the Denver metro area this year (down from 60,000+ in 2019 and 2020),.. I see an increase of 10% - 15% in transaction counts for next year, leaving us somewhere in the mid 40s.

INTEREST RATES:  Again, who knows?  I have more confidence in where rates WON'T go than where they will... and that means no more 3's or 4's without a global war (which sadly remains an open possibility).  Given the amount of federal debt - currently $35 trillion and rising endlessly - there's simply too much debt in the system for rates to come down much.  High 5's, I hope... mid 5's would unlock a lot of buyer and seller activity.

PRICES:  Well, not quite as optimistic here.  As I have explained in numerous conversations and communications this year, there are only three ways for the market to recalibrate after the past few years:  higher wages, lower rates, or lower prices.

Wages are going up... but reality is to restore affordability with a median home price in the 600s will take another 5 - 7 years.  Higher wages help, but it will be a long-term process for wages to catch up with prices.  

Lower rates would obviously help.  Being $35 trillion in debt has me convinced there is simply too much monetized debt being pumped into the secondary markets for interest rates to come down much.  I think living with rates in the 6's is an uncomfortable reality we are gong to have to accept until there's some degree of fiscal responsibility in Washington, which isn't likely to happen regardless of who becomes President in 2025.

Which means... the potential for lower prices is real.  We're seeing it right now with more than 10,000 homes on the market and barely 3,000 under contract.  There are about 2.5 active listings to each home under contract, and any time that ratio is higher than 2 to 1 you are at risk for price declines.

From January 2012 until July of 2024, we went a mind-bending 151 consecutive months with inventory below this 2 to 1 "active-to-pending" threshold.  That historic run resulted in the median home price rocketing from just $218,000 in 2012 to more than $600,000 today.

I've always said prices rise rapidly on the way up but are sticky on the way don, and that will be the case again here.  Multiple offers and bidding wars create massive, rapid price escalation.  But when the offers dry up, most sellers just sit tight and wait.  It's a fast run up but a slow ride down, and the hop is prices will stabilize once we get into the new year

I do believe we will see more buyers AND more sellers in 2025, which means there will be more competition for the best homes but it will remain very difficult to sell marginal real estate.  The demand that exists for home ownership still remains - it has simply been deferred until affordability metrics are better.  

In summary... it will be a market full of challenges, but not as difficult as the gridlocked market of 2024.  More buyers, more sellers, more transactions and a growing acceptance that owning a home is an expensive, long-term commitment - and not a get rich quick scheme.  

GOING IN CIRCLES

I recently sent out my 2024 Denver Real Estate Fall Market Update letter to about 300 past clients and in that letter I spoke extensively about what I call "The Waiting Room". 

For context, so far this year I have met with over 40 prospective buyers or sellers who have ended up sitting on their hands instead of moving forward with a purchase or sale.

Earlier this week, I met (for a second time) with one of these parties I first connected with back in June.

They are an older couple with some developing health issues looking to downsize, but with 25 years of personal belongings piled into their home and a small mortgage with a 3% rate... the path to downsizing involves a lot of work, a lot of time and a higher monthly payment for a much smaller home.  

These clients are really nice people and we talked over the kitchen table for nearly two hours, brainstorming scenarios.

What if they rented a smaller home or townhome for a year, spent a few months clearing out their existing home and sold with minimal pressure or stress before searching out a replacement home?  

What if they chose to rent out their much larger long-term home, which would keep them from having to considering updating it while also creating positive cash flow above and beyond what they would pay for a rental?

What if they pulled cash out of their existing home, used it for a down payment on the replacement property, moved into that replacement property and then dealt with prepping and selling their larger home?

What if they moved most of their stuff into storage, took a two-month cruise while we updated, listed and sold their home and then found a short-term rental until they could identify a replacement property?  

What about adding a chair-lift and making modifications to this two story home so they could stay in place for the next 10 years?  

What about selling direct to a third-party home flipping operation like Open Door (at a 10% - 12% discount) with a rent-back until they could find a new home?  

For now, we haven't resolved anything other than it's going to be work and it's going to take time.  They also have a $1,400 per month payment on a $900,000 home with a fixed income and any downsizing formula would raise their payment by at least 50%.  There are a lot of reasons to simply stay in place, but that still leaves them feeling stuck and housebound in a property that no longer meets their needs.  

 

In the end, we were simply spinning in circles, which is how so many client meetings have finished up in 2024.

A big part of the issue with these clients (and the housing market in general) is that not a lot of things make sense.  First-time buyers are looking at mortgage payments that are much higher than rent - doesn't make sense.  Long-time owners who want to downsize are looking at higher mortgage payments for half the house - doesn't make sense.  

And so we go in circles, thinking and thinking but never acting.  

"In 2020 and 2021," I said at one point in our conversation, "most buyers and sellers had motivation levels that were 14/10.  Today, most of the people I meet with have a motivation level that's a 4 or 5... and it takes a motivation level of at least 7 or 8 to actually move forward in this environment."

More circles.

One of the things I have tried to educate people about this year is that the housing market is going to remain dysfunctional until we have better affordability than we have today.  And there are only three ways for that to happen - higher wages, lower rates or (gulp) lower prices.

Higher wages are going to take years to catch up with today's affordability numbers.  Right now, a household making the median income in the Denver metro would need to spend about 54% of that income to service the mortgage on a median-priced home... far above the upper limit of 36% most lenders observe in their underwriting guidelines.  While wages have been rising, it will likely take 5 - 7 years for wages to catch up to where prices are today.    

With $36 trillion (and counting) in federal debt... rates aren't coming down much, if at all.  There is simply too much debt in the system and with so much securitized debt in play, both the government (through Treasury bond sales) and lenders (through mortgage-backed securities) are having to offer higher and higher yields to attract willing buyers.  

Maybe... maybe... rates get back down into the 5's in 2025... but the rates that brought record affordability in 2020 and 2021 are not coming back, ever, in my opinion.  

And so we are left with option 3... falling prices.  

This is the most likely scenario, although we all hope price reversion is minimal and things stabilize quickly.  In most housing markets, prices rise rapidly but fall slowly.  That's because bidding wars can revalue neighborhoods quickly to the upside... but when demand dries up sellers are slower to adjust, which means properties linger and inventory rises but prices remain sticky for longer.  

Unfortunately, nowhere in this menu of options is higher prices, and that's a real killer on buyer motivation.  It's a market adrift at sea, listing aimlessly like a sailboat with no hint of a breeze in sight.   

The Federal Reserve threw a massive (over-indulgent) party in 2020 and 2021 and the hangover affect is going to last for years, if not the rest of this decade.

Which means fewer transactions, way fewer real estate agents and lots of people stuck in place, including both owners and renters, going in circles.  

KEEPING AN EYE ON HOA FINANCES

With higher insurance costs, higher maintenance expenses and another round of burdensome regulatory requirements coming down from the Legislature, I'm seeing more and more HOAs in financial conditions that are downright scary.

This is especially an issue for HOAs governing older communities with significant deferred maintenance.

There are different types of HOAs.  For many upscale single family detached communities, HOA fees are nominal and simply cover covenant enforcement, managing a few greenbelts and perhaps a community pool.

For townhomes and condos, though, HOAs can have responsibility for structural insurance, garages, roof and exterior maintenance and significant common areas (which is often the difference between an HOA that's $60 - $80 per month and one that might be $400 or more).

There's a large HOA community in Littleton which just had its master insurance coverage dropped because this complex (built in the 1970s) has a large number of Federal Pacific electric panels, a brand that was sued out of existence in the 1980s.

Individual panel replacements are $4,000 or more, and this HOA will either have to find a new carrier (at significantly higher rates) or impose a special assessment and force panel replacements down on the individual owners in order to have an insurable complex.

There's another older townhome community in North Denver where 30% of the units are currently delinquent on HOA dues and the HOA is considering bankruptcy.  To remain solvent with the large number of delinquencies, this HOA would have to raise dues from $350 to nearly $600 per month.

Either of those scenarios would be devastating to community residents and would likely freeze sales activity for some time, resulting in significant price declines.

Very few people want to volunteer to be on an HOA board.  I was president of an HOA for over a decade and I can tell you it's a thankless job.

But just because you're prone to ignore it doesn't mean it isn't important.  If you own a condo or townhome and your dues have been rising, find out why.  Attend a board meeting, read meeting minutes or talk to the community manager.

The financial and governing condition of your HOA can have a huge impact on the soundness of your community - get involved!  

LABOR DAY MEANS INVENTORY HAS PEAKED - AND SO HAS BUYER DEMAND - FOR 2024

There's a predictable rhythm to the Denver housing market each year, at least as it relates to inventory.  We start the year with very little for sale... buyers show up early and it's generally very competitive until around Memorial Day... the market then slows and inventory climbs through August, with the number of active listings traditionally peaking around Labor Day... before both buyers and sellers go into hibernation during the fourth quarter.

As we head into Labor Day weekend, we've got 10,068 active listings for sale in the Denver MLS, up from 6,812 homes for sale one year ago at this time.

That's about 48% more listings on the market year-over-year.

Last year, there were 4,021 homes under contract on Labor Day weekend.  This year, is 4,035 pending contracts.

So essentially the same number of pendings, but 48% more listings.  Not a great environment for sellers.

There are currently 2.50 active listings to each home under contract in the Denver MLS.  The last time we had a higher rate of actives-to-pendings was October of 2011... a full 13 years ago.

In fact, from January 2012 until July of 2024, the Denver housing market went 151 consecutive months where there were fewer than 2.00 active listings to each home under contract.  

What does this mean?

For sellers, it means you have competition from other listings and less demand than we have seen in at least 13 years, thanks to high prices, higher rates, election fear and the new buyer-agency rules that went into effect August 17.

The rest of this year is poised to be a slog - and that's putting it nicely.

If you're looking to sell... my very strong advice would be to wait (at least) until January... when rates will likely be 50 - 75 basis points lower, election drama will (hopefully) be behind us and both buyers and sellers will be somewhat more acclimated to the dramatic rewrite of agency rules.

If you're looking to buy... there might be some real opportunity over the next four months... if only because you'll have more leverage than at any time since the Great Recession and most sellers will have no qualm paying your agent the commission (which now defaults to the buyer's obligation under the new rules).  

I do believe, with increasing conviction, that we're going to see a much stronger market to start 2025, with pent-up demand and lower rates leading to a very competitive Q1 - Q2 environment.

These buyers and their desires for home ownership haven't gone away... that demand is simply being deferred.

If I'm selling... I'm waiting for these buyers to return.  But if you're buying, there's a serious conversation to be had about jumping in before multiple offers and bidding wars are once again the norm in the Denver housing market.  

AND SO IT BEGINS...

It's been almost a full year since a jury seated in a Kansas City courtroom rocked the real estate world with a verdict in a case known as "Sitzer Burnett".

After months of legal wrangling and massive financial settlements, the real estate landscape is about to change forever in just a few short weeks.  

Here's what you need to know...

WHAT THE JURY DECIDED:  Rightly or wrongly, the jury determined that requiring sellers to pay real estate commissions as a condition for having their property marketed in the MLS was a violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act.

WHAT'S CHANGING FOR SELLERS:  Despite the massive $1.8 billion verdict, for most sellers not much will change.  Offering compensation to buyer agents will now be optional (not mandatory)... but in reality, I expect 90% or more of sellers will still see the value in compensating cooperating brokers.

WHAT'S CHANGING FOR BUYERS:  For buyers, a lot is going to change.  As a result of this verdict, buyers will now assume legal responsibility for compensating their agents.  And before viewing ANY properties, it will be a mandatory requirement that buyers have a signed, valid agency agreement in place with a buyer's agent.  If a buyer finds a place that checks all the boxes, the hope is the seller will agree to compensate the buyer's agent.  If not, it's either "no deal" or the buyer will have to pay their agent directly, per their pre-negotiated agency agreement.

WHAT'S CHANGING FOR AGENTS:  Listing agents will have to have deeper conversations with sellers about whether to offer compensation to buyer agents, and if so, how much.  But the most uncomfortable aspect of this settlement is that many buyer agents will be forced to seek agency agreements, with pre-negotiated compensation terms, BEFORE touring any homes.  There is potential for high pressure sales tactics from some agents intent on obtaining a signed agency agreement based on a 30 minute introductory meeting at Starbucks... as well as the potential for some buyers to try and "go it alone" in one of the most complex and important financial transactions.  The potential for massive future litigation - think breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duties, conflict of interest, failure to disclose material defects, etc - will keep real estate attorneys busy for years to come. 

Pending any last minute injunctions or renegotiated terms... the new rules take effect August 17.

I've written extensively about this verdict and its potential impacts throughout the year in several reports I have shared with past and current clients.  I believe these new rules are likely to shrink the buyer pool in the short term and lead to greater liability for agents, brokerages and consumers, particularly buyers.  If you have specific questions, please reach out to me directly and I will be happy to chat with you further about how to navigate these monumental changes.  

SUMMER SLUMBER

As rates remain stubbornly elevated, the traditional summer market slowdown is even more pronounced than usual in 2024.  Inventory is headed for levels not seen since 2019 while buyers remain skittish and uncertain.

For sellers attempting to sell into this environment... price, condition and location (and perhaps a good deal of patience) all matter.  And for buyers, there are more attractive choices and less competition than we've seen in a long time.

If you have followed my market update reports, social media content or we've just had coffee together in recent years, you've heard me clearly articulate that the best time to sell a home in Colorado is between mid-January and mid-May.  

By the time graduation season and Memorial Day weekend roll around, the listing inventory traditionally starts to pile up while the buyer pool begins to thin.

This trend is even more pronounced in 2024, which means many sellers are going to find this to be a more challenging environment than we have seen in several years.

Here are a couple of quick snapshots showing how significantly things have changed when comparing the market today to just one year ago:

Current Active Inventory - 8,439 listings

Active Inventory June 2023 - 5,573 listings

That's an increase of 2,866 active listings (+51%) from June 2023

Current Pendings - 4,524 homes under contract

Pendings June 2023 - 4,759 homes under contract

That's a decrease of 235 homes under contract (-5%) from June 2023

Current Active to Under Contract Ratio - 1.87

Active to Under Contract Ratio June 2023 - 1.17

Current Absorption Rate - 2.33 months of inventory

Absorption Rate June 2023 - 1.52 months of inventory

What you see in these number is not only have we moved past the peak selling season for 2024... things are noticeably slower than a year ago.  And that is concerning as it relates to the rest of 2024.  

A year ago at this time, there was still a sense of optimism around the narrative that the surge in interest rates would be short-lived and that we were all just marking time until mortgage rates fell back into the 5's (or even more optimistically, the 4's) as soon as inflation was in check.

A year later, inflation is not in check and mortgage rates are north of 7%.

At 3.4%, inflation is still 70% above the Fed's 2.0% target inflation rate.  And with $35 trillion (and counting) in Federal debt, there has simply been too much money printing and credit extended into the system for us to get back to 2.0% anytime soon.

If inflation remains high, then the cost of goods and services remains high.  And if the Fed is committed to reigning in inflation (or at least trying to keep it from spiraling out of control) it will keep rates elevated to lessen demand for those goods and services.

Whether home prices can hold up in the face of continued high interest rates is very much an open question, in my opinion.

The bottom line is we're seeing a lot more sellers come online without the buyer-side demand to absorb that inventory.  Higher mortgage rates, higher property taxes and higher insurance costs are making home ownership a very expensive proposition.

To cure it, something is going to have to break.

A more robust housing market is going to require some combination of higher wages, lower rates or lower prices.  Failing that, it's looking like it's going to be a summer standoff between sellers reluctant to lower prices and buyers unwilling (or unable) to pay them.

IN A SHIFTING MARKET, THE FIRST WEEK IS EVERYTHING

May is a pivotal transition month in the Denver real estate market as graduations happen, the school year ends and a much larger number of homes start to hit the market.

As of this week, there are now 6,623 active listings in the Denver MLS, which is up 51.9% from twelvemonths earlier.  With mortgage rates in the mid 7's, affordability is severely burdened and it's very possible we'll see a market that continues to slow through the balance of 2024.

With that being said, there are still buyers out there.  A total of 3,921 homes went under contract in April, down about 5% from the 4,149 homes that went under contract in April of 2023.  

But with 52% more active listings and 5% fewer contracts, you can see that buyers have a lot more choices, which means price and condition mean more than ever.

If you're attempting to sell a home in this environment, the first seven days on the market are absolutely critical to your success.  Consider the following:

* In April, all new listings in the Denver MLS averaged 7.85 showings in the first 7 days on the market.

* For listings that remained on the market at least 30 days, the average number of showings in the first month was 11.20.

* Properties that went pending in the first 8 days on the market averaged 16.35 showings.  

* For all active listings in the Denver MLS (regardless of time on market), the average number of showings per week was just 2.28.  

The key takeaways from this are as follows:

- Homes that went pending in the first week had more than twice as many showings as other new listings (16.35 vs 7.85).

- New listings that didn't sell in the first week averaged less than two additional showings a week for the balance of the first month.  

These numbers are a far cry from the insanity of 2020-2022, when many listings easily cleared 50 or more showings in a single weekend and any property that wasn't falling down generated 5 to 15 offers.

In multiple conversations I've had with buyers lately, I've said the same thing.  There are two types of homes on the market today - those that will sell in 7 days or less, and those that may not sell at all.

It's up to sellers to decide which column they want to land in.  For attractively priced homes that show well, showings are plentiful and multiple offers are still happening.

But for the mushy middle of the market - those homes that are just okay, possibly overpriced and not particularly interesting - being able to sell at all is no sure proposition.

For sellers, all focus right now needs to be on the first seven days of activity, when motivated buyers are coming through and interest is at its highest.  It's in this initial surge of activity that the market will pass judgement on your home.

If your value proposition is strong, interest will be also.

And if it's not, the market will let you know, often with silence. 

INVENTORY IS RISING QUICKLY... AND SO ARE INTEREST RATES

Hope you enjoyed the "spring market".

It showed up early, hit hard and is now headed for the door.

We see a pattern similar to this most years.  The year begins with very low inventory while buyers show up in larger numbers.  That creates an imbalance between supply and demand which often results in multiple offers and bidding wars until more inventory shows up, which invariably happens as you get closer to graduation season and the end of the school year.

This year, we began January with just over 4,000 active listings on the market in the metro area.  As of today, we are up to over 6,500 active listings, and that number will continue climbing all the way until the end of August.

With inflation persisting (due in large part because of never-ending government deficit spending) and rates now firmly into the mid 7's, the buyer pool is being thinned even further while inventory will continue climbing.  

It's hard for me to see how prices hold up in the second half of the year with rates north of 7.5%.  

By understanding the dynamics of this market and educating my clients well, I've listed five homes this year and all five ended up with multiple offers... 17, 5, 4, 4 and 3... to be exact.  Those homes sold $50k over list, $40k over list, $31k over list, $10k over list and $7k over list.  

If you detect a trend here, it's because we understand that pricing a home attractively drives activity, which drives showings, which drives offers, which drives up the final price.  

You must have showings to be successful, and to have showings, your listing must stand out.

I've told my sellers repeatedly this year, there are two types of homes on the market - those that will sell in 7 days or less (often with multiple offers)... and those that won't sell at all.

Market wide showing statistics in April bear this out.

Over the past 30 days, all new listings in the Denver MLS averaged 7.85 showings in the first seven days on the market, according to data from RE Colorado.

But for properties that went pending in the first seven days on the market, those listings averaged 16.30 showings.

What you see here is, if you are a seller, the first seven days are absolutely critical to your success.  The homes that are going under contract are averaging twice as many showings as those new listings not going under contract... which means those prospective buyers are showing up for a reason.

And what drives showings is pricing, condition and marketing.

You've got to price your home realistically - no more pie in the sky nonsense.

Your home has to pop - it needs to be clean, uncluttered and at least relatively updated.

And you need to display a serious commitment to marketing and promotion - which means staging, professional photography, aerial images, walkthrough video tours and extensive pre-market awareness campaigns.  

If you can do that, there are definitely buyers, and those buyers will often compete (and compete hard) for your listing.

If you follow the non-descript "4P" approach to selling a home... put a sign in the yard, put it in the MLS, put a lockbox on the door and pray for a buyer... good luck to you.     

Once we get past Memorial Day, and barring some unforeseeable plunge in interest rates, I predict we're going to see the slowest real estate market we've seen in at least a decade during the second half of 2024.  And it will be made worse by the new buyer agency rules coming in July, when buyers will be required to take more direct responsibility for compensating their agents due to the NAR settlements.    

If you are thinking of putting a home on the market and you don't have an iron clad commitment to getting your home sold, it's likely to be a long, hard slog through a slow, hot summer with fewer buyers, fewer showings and at least some degree of price damage until interest rates come down, if they do at all.  

The buyer pool is fragile right now, and sellers (most with huge amounts of equity) have far more motivation to sell than buyers do to buy.  That only changes when interest rates come down, which only happens when inflation comes down, which only happens when the government shows some fiscal restraint.  

Which hasn't happened since the printing presses were fired up in the 2020 Covid pandemic, and certainly won't be happening in a contentious election year.