NAR RANKS DENVER THIRD IN MEDIAN HOME PRICE APPRECIATION – BUT NOT SO FAST…

The National Association of Realtors reported this week that Denver’s median home price increased 14.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, which was the third strongest showing in NAR’s 20-city index. And you won’t have to look far to find real estate agents crawling all over each other to tell you how great this is for Denver.

But not so fast. Let me tell you what this really means.

It has been my view that while the first wave of foreclosures in Colorado (2004 – 2007) primarily hit the entry level of the market (80% of foreclosures during that time occurred on homes priced below $250k), the second wave of foreclosures (occurring now) is hitting the high end of the market.

And here’s why: It’s a lot easier to replace a $12 an hour job than a $100,000 per year job.

The first wave of foreclosures in Colorado was caused by poor lending practices, and it was a byproduct of the home ownership rate in America spiking from 61% to 69% (US Census Bureau data) between 1995 and 2005. Because of subprime lending and “easy credit”, home ownership was opened up to anyone who wanted to buy a house, regardless of qualification. And the truth is that most of those coming into the market for the first time were not buying half-million dollar homes – they were credit-impaired buyers who were buying into the entry level.

This time around, it’s job losses and the larger economy that are hurting the housing market. And when a Qwest account manager making $100,000 a year (and consequently living in a larger home) loses his job, he simply cannot find another one to replace it.

Hence, while the recession is affecting everyone, it’s clobbering the middle and upper class.

So when the median home price increases 14.4%, here’s what it really means…

One year ago, two years ago, three years ago, the deals were at the bottom of the market. So people were buying off the bottom.

Now, it’s the higher end of the market that is seeing significant value declines, and so more buyers are seeing value in buying higher up.

Keep in mind what the median home price means – the “median” price is that number at which 50% of sales fall below it, and 50% of sales rise above it. It’s not an average, or a true indicator of value. It tells you where the activity is.

And while it generally can be considered positive that people have the confidence to spend more money on homes today than they did a year ago, I would still argue vehemently that buyers in this market are value-driven, and today the perceived value is at a higher price point, because that’s where values have been declining the most.

Once we establish that values have fallen, we then need to talk about cycles and the implications of where we are in that pricing cycle.

With the low end of the market, we went through about four years of loss or stagnation before things began to improve in 2008. It’s an ugly process, which involves a lot of people losing their homes, or losing their equity, but inevitably suffering a reduction in their standard of living.

The same cycle is now in play at the high end.

As you can tell, this isn’t Realtor “happy talk”. While I am a Realtor, I am also a “realist”. And this is what I see.

So which city sat atop NAR’s list for highest increase in median price over the past 12 months? San Diego, with a gain of 20.4%. But sales there only increased 4%.

What this means is you have a small pool of buyers with the means to purchase, and those buyers are gravitating toward where they see value. And they see value at the higher end because those homes have been hemorrhaging value for the past 12 months.

If the median prices surges, but sales don’t, you do not have a thriving market. You simply have people who are shopping selectively, buyers who have moved from hamburger to steak because the steak is now on sale.

If you’re looking for a true leading economic indicator that will signal a broader recovery, it will be jobs.

A jump in the median price is not a bad thing, and I don’t want to portray it as such. But like most statistics, it needs to be interpreted. It’s definitely not a bad time to buy a house… especially at the lower end of the market. But it needs to be the right house, at the right price, under the right terms.

I suspect you will hear lots of rejoicing over the next few days about Denver's ranking in the new NAR report.  But before anyone tells me that all our troubles are behind us, show me the jobs. Because employment, and not median price, is the tide that will (eventually) lift all boats.

NEW LEAD-BASED PAINT REGULATIONS TAKE EFFECT TODAY

Starting today, renovations which could disturb lead-based paint in older homes must comply with new lead-based paint mitigation rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Under the newly implemented rules, renovators working on homes built before 1978 must be trained and EPA-certified to perform safe work practices to prevent lead contamination. Additionally, renovators must deliver EPA's lead renovation pamphlet to an occupant within 60 days before a project begins (and, if mailed, at least seven days before a project begins). Renovators must also obtain the occupant's signed acknowledgment of receipt.

The EPA issued this rule in 2008, but delayed implementation until now. The rule generally applies to building contractors, handymen, residential landlords, property managers, and anyone else who is paid to perform renovations or to direct workers to perform renovations as specified. The lead renovation rule does not apply to homeowners renovating the homes they live in. However, sellers of homes built prior to 1978 must still disclose to their buyers any known lead-based paint and lead-based paint hazards.

Renovation work covered by the lead renovation rule is defined as a modification of an existing structure that disturbs a painted surface, such as surface restoration or surface preparation activity. Excluded are minor repair and maintenance activities that disrupt up to 6 square feet of interior painted surface or 20 square feet of exterior painted surface. Demolitions and window replacements, however, are not considered minor repairs.

For more information, visit the EPA's website at http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/toolkits.htm

COLORADO TO OFFER CASH FOR APPLIANCES STARTING APRIL 19

The Colorado State Energy-Efficient Appliance Rebate Program, which is being referred to as the "Cash for Appliances" program, is scheduled to begin April 19.

The state will implement a mail-in rebate program to help consumers replace older appliances with new, Energy Star-listed appliances. Residents must apply for the rebates online. Colorado has received $4.7 million in federal stimulus money to pay for the program, which will expire when the funds are depleted.

Colorado’s eligible appliances include:

Clothes washers -- $75

Dishwashers -- $50

Refrigerators -- $100 if recycled, $50 if not recycled

Furnaces -- gas condensing $500

Hot water heater -- gas condensing/high performance $200

Hot water heater -- gas tankless $300

Gas boilers -- $400

Other requirements also apply. For instance, refrigerators must be at least 12 cubic feet in size to qualify and furnaces must be rated at an Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency (AFUE) greater or equal to 92 percent.  There will also be minimum efficiency requirements for water heaters and other household appliances.

The "Cash for Appliances" program will be a great way for new homeowners to make important upgrades affordably.  For more information, access the Colorado Governor's Energy Office website by clicking HERE.

COLORADO JOBLESS RATE HITS 7.9%

New labor statistics released yesterday showed that Colorado's unemployment rate rose 0.2% in March, to 7.9%.  Nationally, the unemployment rate was reported at 9.7%.  Twenty four states showed in an increase in unemployment during March, despite the federal government hiring thousands of temporary census workers.

To me, the jobless rate is directly tied to the housing market.  As I've said in past postings, I don't believe there is anything as a "jobless recovery".  An increase in the unemployment rate tells me the housing market is probably going to limp along, at least in the near term, without any break in the pattern we have seen over the past 18 months.  And that pattern is strength at the low end of the market, softness in the middle, and very little improvement with the high end of the market.

If you're looking for a trigger, it will be with the jobless rate.  If Colorado's unemployment rate had fallen 0.2%, to me that would be a big deal.  And I would be telling my $250,000 - $400,000 buyers to get in fast, because improvement is coming. 

But yesterday's numbers tell me it's going to be more of the same.  Caution will continue to be the order of the day.

THE BACKLASH AGAINST FORBES

"The truth?  You can't handle the truth!!"

       - Jack Nicholson, as Colonel Nathan Jessup, in "A Few Good Men"

Forbes.com has caused a mini-riot inside the Denver real estate community with an online article posted last week entitled "America's Worst Selling Housing Markets," in which Denver was rated as the second worst place to sell a home in the country, behind only Milwaukee.

The Forbes.com article, originally published on April 5, had this to say: “Before 2009, if any market seemed to be free from the rest of the country’s housing woes, it was (Denver). But the city’s fortunes seem to have shifted: The recession hit Denver later, and only in the past year have sales slowed and inventory begun to pile up.”

And the report, which it said was based on information from the National Association of Realtors, Zillow.com and Moody’s Economy.com, went on to say that “Denver doesn’t come to mind as a housing-crisis hot spot, but the city that once looked like it would escape the housing bust unscathed now shows signs of strain. More than 42,000 homes are on the market in the metro area, 27% more than last year.” (emphasis added)

It's the last sentence that has thrown everyone into a fit. 

As of March 31, the Denver MLS shows 20,030 homes currently for sale.  That number includes condos and single family homes and covers the Denver MSA from Castle Rock to Longmont.  That's a 2.9% DECREASE from one year ago and a 21.5% DECREASE from March of 2008.

Many agents, including myself, have fired off notes to Forbes asking where this data came from (I'm still waiting for someone to get back to me).  My assertion is that Forbes simply screwed up.

Late last year, the Denver MLS switched over to a new system called "Prime Access".  One result of that migration - Denver agents can now check inventory statewide, instead of just in the seven county Denver statistical MSA.  If you look at the current statewide inventory of homes, the number of homes for sale is around 37,000, which is close to Forbes' magic number of 42,000.

Maybe that's where they goofed.

The bottom line is that the Forbes article needs to be corrected.  It's not just a little wrong, it's 100% wrong.  I would not say our market is thriving (except at the entry level), but it certainly is not the second worst market in the country. 

Step up, Forbes, and admit you got it wrong.

COLORADO HAS EIGHTH LOWEST MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATE

Colorado ranked 8th in the country in February for the lowest rate of mortgage delinquencies, according to asset management company Lender Processing Services.

The report said that 8.5% of Colorado mortgages were delinquent in February.  6.7% of those loans were late (at least one missed payment), while just 1.8% were in foreclosure (at least three payments behind with a foreclosure action filed by the lender).  The national average for delinquencies among all states was 13.5%.

Nationwide, there were nearly 8 million delinquent loans plus foreclosed loans nationwide at the end of February, up 26 percent from a year earlier. However, the total was down from January by less than 1 percent.
Florida had the highest noncurrent loan rates for the month, at 23.8 percent, followed by Nevada (23.3 percent) and Arizona (16.3 percent).
North Dakota had the lowest rate (4.7 percent), with South Dakota (5.4 percent) and Alaska (6.6 percent) almost as low.

THE TSUNAMI OF SOCIAL MEDIA

Social media is here to stay. And to prove it, website ratings service Hitwise announced last month that Facebook had supplanted Google as the most visited website on the Internet.

Facebook traffic has increased 185% from a year ago, while Google has only grown by 9% during that time. Overall, Facebook and Google visitors now account for 14% of all Internet traffic.

Because of this, I recently launched a Fan Page on Facebook, which has quickly grown to nearly 100 members including numerous past clients, business partners, prospects and colleagues.

I use this space to post brief updates each week, as well as to stay in touch and share relevant real estate news.

I also have gathered pages of testimonials (click on the REVIEWS tab) while highlighting links to my referral directory, new listings and an updated video library.

And all that is just the tip of the iceberg.

Passive marketing is dead. Active marketing is in. And the Internet is ground zero for the revolution taking place in real estate today. Consumers expect us to meet them where they are… and in greater and greater numbers, they are online.

Friend me on Facebook, find me on LinkedIn, watch me on YouTube. Get the message out there. Show people who you are. Be authentic.

Authenticity, integrity and access. That’s what it’s all about. And that’s why I’m investing in the growing tsunami that is social media.

CASE-SHILLER REPORTS DENVER HOME PRICES UP FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH

For the third month in a row, Denver-area home prices showed a year-over-year increase in January, according to the latest Case-Shiller Home Prices Index.

Out of 20 U.S. cities in the closely watched report from Standard & Poor’s, released Tuesday, Denver was one of nine that showed a year-over-year increase in prices.

Denver-area home prices were 2.6 percent higher in January 2010 than in January 2009. That followed a 1.2 percent year-over-year increase in December and a 0.5 percent gain in November.

But again, these price increases are all being driven by activity at the lower levels of the market, which is being propelled by the two tax credits and the high number of first-time buyers entering the market.  A home at $150,000 may have appreciated by 8 to 10% in the past year, while a home at $500,000 may have depreciated by the same percentage.  Condos have performed poorly at all levels.  Put it all together, and you have Case-Shiller numbers showing a 2.6% gain.

Denver’s overall home price index was 125.59 in January, meaning that a typical home in the area was worth nearly 26 percent more than in January 2000, which is the index’s base year.

THE MAGIC OF A PRE-APPROVED HOUSE

In a market flooded with foreclosures and distressed inventory, I have been counseling my sellers lately to do the work up front – to have their home pre-inspected, cleaned, staged… and to make it shine compared to the competition from day one.

This approach is the right one, and it’s working.

If we need to do repair work up front, we do it from a position of strength. This allows us to adjust our asking price upward before we go on the market to reflect any additional improvements or upgrades we have made during the pre-listing period.

If wait until a buyer’s inspector discovers a defect when we are under contract, our leverage is gone. Under this scenario, we not only have to consider honoring the buyer’s repair request, but we see equity chipped away because we did not have the opportunity to adjust the list price to reflect the improvements prior to soliciting offers.

This is just one example of how important sound strategy is in this market.

Asking sellers to put some time and money into a property before listing it isn't for everyone. I do turn down listings when I feel a seller isn't committed to appropriately marketing his or her property... but as Brian Buffini, one of my lifelong real estate mentors, says, "I would rather turn you down now than let you down later".

Under $250,000, there is no shortage of buyers right now. This is where the best values in our market are found, where foreclosures are concentrated, and where values have eroded the most over the past few years.

But for those sellers who want to sell and have the equity to do it, selling now is an easier proposition than it has been in several years... as long as you do it the right way. Buyers are tired of deferred maintenance, difficult short sales and trashed foreclosures.

With the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit driving entry-level buyers into the market in large numbers, there is an opportunity for "traditional" sellers to get a great outcome right now. But you have to look at the market through a buyer's eyes, and understand the challenges and frustrations they face in dealing with so much competition.

We are living in a fear-based economy, and if you can eliminate a buyer's fears by showing that your property is everything it appears to be (and more), you'll see a better offer in a shorter period of time.

FANNIE MAE WEIGHS IN WITH MORE RESTRICTIONS ON CONDOS

In January, I posted an article on this site about FHA's new guidelines which are being phased in on condo projects.  In short, FHA is making condo financing more expensive and less available by adding new regulations limiting the number of units it finances, avoiding projects with high concentrations of renters and by assessing the overall financial health of HOAs before making a loan.

Now, Fannie Mae is weighing in with its own set of new, restrictive guidelines.  The changes, which began to take effect in January, were part of an effort to limit risky lending in a segment of the housing market particularly hard hit by foreclosures in recent years.

Here is a brief overview of the Fannie Mae condo guideline changes:

• For new construction and newly converted condominium developments, 70% of the units must be pre-sold (closed or under contract). This guideline is being increased from 51%. This is the real Catch-22. Fannie Mae won’t approve condominium mortgages unless 70% of the units are sold, but a developer cannot sell 70% of the units without buyers being able to obtain conventional Fannie Mae compliant mortgages. Buyers who run into problems here are being forced to get loans from small local banks who hold their own mortgages and are not bound by the FNMA guidelines.

• No more than 15% of condominium units within a single project can be more than 30 days delinquent on condo fees. This is an existing guideline that is now being applied to new condominium projects. The requirement was also changed from being 15% of the total fee payments to 15% of total units.

• Fidelity insurance will be required for condominiums with 20 or more units, ensuring that homeowner association funds are protected. Presently, this requirement applies to new projects and is now being extended to include established condominiums.

• Borrowers must now obtain an HO-6 condominium unit owners insurance policy unless the condominium master policy provides interior unit coverage; coverage may not be less than 20% of the assessed value. A condominium owners policy, known as an HO-6 policy, typically covers personal property, personal liability, and the physical unit from the studs and in. Many policies also include special assessment coverage or the option to include a special assessment coverage rider.

• No more than 10% of a project can be owned by a single entity. Apparently, this was to keep the so-called “vulture buyers” from taking over project.

• No more than 20% of a project can consist of non-residential space. The new guidelines therefore severely impact most mixed commercial-residential use projects, a highly popular development scheme.

• The condominium/homeowners association must have at least 10% of its budgeted income designated in a capital reserve fund for replacement reserves and adequate funds budgeted for the insurance deductible. Many older condominium associations keep woefully inadequate reserves and operating budgets, so they are non-compliant.

• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have also boosted fees on mortgages for condominium units. Buyers without a minimum 25% down payment have to pay closing-cost fees equal to 0.75% of their loan, regardless of their credit score, under new rules that take effect in April. 

Watching Fannie, Freddie and FHA gang up on condo lending has been hard to take.  Because of the massive failures of high rise projects in San Diego, Las Vegas, Miami and other speculative hotbeds, condo owners in middle America are paying a steep price. 

But although it's not fair, it's here.  My hope is that over the next few years, some of these restrictions might be loosened or rolled back, because as it stands, the government is actively chasing buyers away from the condo market.  There needs to be some geographic consideration in this equation, but instead, Fannie, Freddie and FHA are throwing cold water on condos everywhere.

FEATURED IN SUNDAY'S DENVER POST

It was an honor to be featured in the Denver Post this morning in a special advertising supplement honoring the top producers in the RE/MAX system for 2009.

I am now in my 16th year as a licensed real estate broker, and 2009 was one of my most productive years.  I am grateful for the support of a wonderful brokerage, a strong referral network and, of course, a fantastic group of clients. 

Those of you who have worked with me know that I take each transaction and treat it as if it were my own.  I do extensive research on homes, neighborhooods, and schools before ever writing an offer. 

For my buyers, I research sales history, foreclosures, liens, encumbrances, HOA documents and whatever else I can dig up through public records to give my clients the clearest possible picture.

My sellers know that I strongly advocate pre-inspection, staging and vast Internet exposure to get their listings sold.  I am most proud of the fact that I sold 100% of the listings I took in 2009.

There are many challenges in this market, and dangers as well.  My clients know that I take my responsibility to them very seriously, and I appreciate the fact that they eagerly refer me to others.

It was fun to see this ad in the paper today... but it was also an affirmation that we are doing things the right way.

THE TRUTH ABOUT HUD'S $100 DOWN PAYMENT PROGRAM

Met with a first-time buyer last week who was excited about purchasing a HUD home.  "The lender at my credit union said I could buy a HUD home for $100 down," she said, breathlessly.  "That's what I want!"

At that, my eyes rolled back into my skull and my forehead crashed down on the table.

What is a HUD home?

HUD homes are homes that have been taken back by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) when FHA loans go bad. 

Simply speaking, HUD homes are foreclosed properties that had FHA financing attached to them.

HUD does have a program where buyers can purchase a HUD home for $100 down... in theory.  The language in the HUD guidebook says that HUD will allow buyers using FHA financing to purchase a HUD home for $100 down, if they make a full price offer.  Sounds good, right? 

Now here's the catch:

"If your purchaser is obtaining FHA financing, and you overbid the appraised value (HUD's list price), the purchaser must pay the overbid amount in cash at closing."

Did you catch that?

HUD is notorious for lowball appraisals, and they universally slap lowball prices based on lowball HUD appraisals on almost all of their listings. 

Case in point... last week, I submitted an offer for another first-time buyer on a HUD home in Northglenn listed at $130,000.  Comps in the area ranged from the $150k's up to $193k, and this appeared to that rare HUD home that was essentially move-in ready. 

My FHA buyer bid $135,100, although I would have been comfortable going a little higher.  (HUD basically facilitates a 10 day "blind bidding" process for its listings over the Internet, where certified agents can log in and place sealed bids for their clients.  On the 11th day, HUD reviews the bids and selects a winner.)

So who won?  In the end, there were 47 bids placed on this undervalued home with the top bidder offering $151,900.  If that buyer chooses to use FHA financing, he will need to bring in $22,000, plus closing costs.  That ain't $100, folks.

In the name of disclosure, I have pulled off the $100 HUD down payment before, but it's not easy.  And if the home is in decent shape and priced below $200,000, you are looking at 10 to 50 bids right now, on average.  At least until the tax credits go away at the end of April. 

I have talked to many people at the HUD office over the past few years, and one of their great frustrations is with agents who submit bids on HUD homes thinking their clients can buy them for $100 down.  Then they bid $15,000 over list price, the offer gets accepted, and the buyer gets blindsided when he's told he needs to bring in $15,100, plus closing costs. 

A week later, the home is back on the market and the buyer is looking for a new agent.

I'm not saying that HUD homes are bad, and I'm not saying the process is unfair.  But I am saying that you need to be educated about what's happening in the market so that you can make wiser choices.

My client knew he was going to have to bring money to the table to purchase that HUD home, had he been high bidder.  I wonder how many of the other 46 bidders thought they were going to move into this home for $100 down?