Each year, I look for a prevailing theme inside the Denver real estate market... and this year it's the elevated number of sellers throwing in the towel and pulling their homes off the market in the face of increased competition and limited buyer demand.
In April, there were 1,260 listings pulled from the market as withdrawn or expired listings. In October, than number was more than 3,000 - a 140% increase in six months. It feels like as the year has worn on, more and more sellers have simply given up (for now).
If you have followed my writings for any period of time, you know that the Denver real estate market behaves in a predictable rhythm. In short, historically speaking, we have always started the year with inventory at its lowest level... with the number of homes coming on the market rising during the spring and eventually peaking in the summer, usually around Labor Day.
But from a buyer demand standpoint, buyers have always shown up early in the year. It's this late winter/early spring imbalance - not many sellers and lots of buyers - that creates what we traditionally refer to as the "spring market".
For years, the window between February - April has been the best time to list a home for sale. And while that's still true, I don't think it's going to matter as much next year.
There is a high probability that by the end of 2025, we will see more than 25,000 listings pulled from the market during this calendar year... victims of overpricing, under-preparation or a simple failure to understand how dramatically things have shifted since 2022.
And I think it's quite realistic to assume a substantial number of these listings will be looping right back onto the market early next year, which will likely have a softening effect on the spring market.
Buyers have more choices (and leverage) than they have had in 15 years and that means to get a home sold, you must have a tangible value proposition.
The good news is that homes are still selling. In fact, more than 4,300 homes sold in the metro area in October, down just 2% from a year ago (prices were flat for detached homes, according to DMAR, and down about 4% YOY for attached units).
But with 11,000 active listings - the highest November listing count since 2011 - and all those withdrawn/expired listings lurking in the background, it's difficult to see where this market will suddenly flip back into another sellers' paradise anytime soon.
In my 2025 listing appointments, I have repeatedly said that the motivation to sell in this market has to be an 8, 9 or 10... not a 5, 6 or 7. The mid-motivated sellers who weren't really committed to selling are finding out that tossing it on the market and simply hoping for a buyer is not a winning strategy.
It takes experience and an actual plan - which starts with a thorough assessment of your home's strengths and weaknesses - to devise a winning plan in today's market.
