CASE-SHILLER SHOWS FIRST NATIONAL HOUSING PRICE INCREASE IN 34 MONTHS

Okay, so it's not exactly a roaring recovery, but it is a sign of hope.

For the first time in 34 months, the Case-Shiller national housing index showed a rebound in prices, with values up in May by 0.5% over April's figures. The Case-Shiller report tracks the 20 largest markets in the county (including Denver) and reports its numbers with a lag time of about two-months.

Prices were down by over 17% year over year on a national level, but decreased by just 4% in Denver (and those value losses were almost all at the higher end of the market, which remains extremely soft above $500,000).

While the Denver market has been in recovery mode for more than a year, the Case-Shiller report indicates that, on a national level, buyers are coming back into the market in larger numbers and confidence is being restored.

While I do not feel the Case-Shiller numbers are particularly relevant to Denver (I have always believed that "all real estate is local"), it is important because a recovery in housing confidence will put more pressure on interest rates... and rising rates will be one of the next big challenges for both the housing market and our overall economy, in my opinion.

So take the good news with a grain of salt... recognize that things may be improving a little bit at the national level, but remember that the Denver market is probably 18 months ahead of this curve, since we were one of the very first markets into the housing (and subprime meltdown) abyss.

Keep your eye on interest rates - because good news for the housing market is a sure indicator that higher interest rates are ahead.

WITH MORE HOME BUYERS IN THE MARKET, DENVER RENTAL VACANCIES RISE

My personal feeling is that the Denver Metro Area housing market "hit bottom" in March or April of 2008. That's when inventory was highest, buyers were scarcest, and sellers (including banks) were discounting like crazy to get homes sold.

That was probably also about the peak of the last rental cycle, when vacancies for single family rental homes were below 3% (apartment vacancies were about 6%) and landlords were able to raise rents at will.

Fast forward to today, and you see that the market is transitioning once again. While the market for single family rental homes and condos remains strong, with just a 3.6% vacancy rate in the second quarter, apartment vacancies in the Denver Metro Area have now increased for six consecutive quarters, rising to nearly 10%.

It appears that the first-time buyer tax credit and low interest rates have been pulling many longtime apartment renters into the housing market.

I believe this is a short-term condition, personally, because one significant factor these days is that new apartment construction has all but disappeared from the landscape. New apartment units are not coming online, and most residential builders have either declared bankruptcy or suspended operations in the face of lower demand for "retail" product, more difficulty with financing and an overall decline in profit margins as consumers stress "value" over "luxury".

As long as the population continues to grow, the rental market will stabilize and landlords will be okay. The "big picture" fundamentals for both private and institutional landlords remain in place, but the fact remains, in the short term, some landlords will feel the pinch of the economy, just like everyone else.

REALTY TRAC SAYS FORECLOSURES IN METRO AREA CONTINUE TO DECLINE

RealtyTrac, a California-based foreclosure tracking service, reports that the Denver Metro area ranked number 45 in the country in new foreclosure filings during the first half of the year, signaling a continuing decline in foreclosure activity as the local housing market solidifies.

The RealtyTrac numers show a 29.43 decrease in foreclosure filings for the Denver region, while nationally foreclosures increased by almost 15 percent.

Because foreclosure filings are counted differently by different tracking services (some count NEDs, some track delinquencies, some count trustee sales), the numbers vary a bit from report to report. Earlier this summer, a survey of public trustees' offices in the seven county Denver Metro Area showed an overall decline of about 11 percent in trustee sales, which is that final point in the process when the homeowner actually loses title to the foreclosed property.

However, no matter which report you follow, there is a consistent theme: Denver appears (for now) to be on the back-end of its foreclosure crisis, and with low interest rates, already discounted prices and an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, our market will continue to perform better than most for the rest of this year.

THE GREAT SUMMER STORM OF 2009

Okay, that was interesting.

Where were you when the Great Summer Storm of 2009 rolled through town last night? Here, once the storm got started around 10 o'clock, it sounded like someone had taken a giant firehose full of hail and was firing it at the side of our house.

Not only was there extraordinary amounts of wind, rain and hail, we could see rolling clouds along the ground that would obscure streetlights, buildings and even large trees in our neighborhood. I don't know if it was groundfog or funnel clouds... I just know it was weird.

So I was at Home Depot mid-morning and it was the most crowded I've seen it in four years. Chain saws and power tools flying off the shelves... rakes... garbage cans... power generators... gloves... we had our own economic stimulus event last night, in the form of an insane summer storm.

Just part of the adventure of living in Colorado, I suppose, where you never know what weather event waits just around the bend.

FINAL DAYS FOR $8,000 FTB TAX CREDIT?

334… 123… 60… ZERO!

What does this sequence of numbers have to do with the housing market?

It’s a countdown to the end of the $8,000 First-Time Buyers federal tax credit, which covers new homeowners purchasing a primary residence between January 1, 2009 and November 30, 2009 (a window of 334 days) and who have not owned a home in the past three years.

As of this morning, there are just 123 days left until the expiration of the tax credit, but in reality, because it normally takes 45 to 60 to close a property once it’s under contract, buyers looking to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit really only have about 60 days left to find the perfect home and get it under contract.

But it’s not just buyers who have benefitted from this tax credit. As you know, the market in the Denver Metro region below $250,000 has been sizzling hot this summer, and "traditional" sellers are having more success than any time in the past three to four years. Foreclosures are down and private sellers are finding that retail buyers are out there, especially if a home has been well maintained (or rehabbed) and is in "turnkey" condition.

That means if you have been thinking about selling an entry level home, and you want to capitalize on the strong buyer demand that exists today, you only have about 60 days left to secure an offer before the strong impact of the tax credit incentive starts to diminish.

Many of next year’s first-time buyers have jumped into the market this year, drawn by the tax credit and an incredibly attractive interest rate environment. In a few short months, we could lose the tax credit and see higher rates, a one-two punch that would take some of the starch out of our market and make things more difficult for both buyers and sellers.

Now I don’t advise you to sell your home just because of the tax credit, any more than I would tell you to buy a home because of the tax credit. Homes should be bought and sold because the decision makes sense from the standpoint of your family situation, your employment situation, your economic status and other “life events” that normally trigger moves up or down.

But both buyers and sellers are benefitting right now from this unique tax credit, which is slated to go away pretty soon.

Is there anyone you know who has been thinking about buying a first home or selling a longtime residence?

Remember, I am never too busy for your referrals!

JULY MARKET SNAPSHOT

As we do at the beginning of each month, we pull raw data from the MLS and run it through our own statistical filters to get a handle on the condition of the Denver area housing market.

Here are highlights from this month's snapshot:

* Homes priced below $250,000 currently account for 28% of all listings and 60% of all sales

* Below $250,000, there are just 1.41 active listings for sale to each one currently under contract

* Homes priced between $600,000 and $1 million currently account for 15% of all listings and just 3% of all sales

* Above $1 million, there are 24 active listings to each one currently under contract

Each of these snippets tells a story, but in short, the song remains the same.

Although overall listing inventory is down 20% from a year ago (as foreclosures become more scarce), it's still all about the lower end of the market.

There is currently just a 2.60 month supply of homes below $250,000, compared to a 45 month supply of homes priced above $1 million.

Higher end home sales depend on a strong economy (we don't have it), consumer confidence (not good) and availability of credit (tightest lending standards in 20 years). Until these conditions are corrected, the higher end of the market will remain distressed, and values will continue to erode.

As I mentioned in a previous post, there are really three totally distinct categories within the larger Denver metro housing market.

The low end is hot, the middle is warm, and at the top we're a long way from recovery.

How we approach your situation depends on what segment of the market find yourself in. But it takes specialized knowledge to navigate this market, and if your agent can't articulate what you've read in this space, chances are you are working with someone who doesn't understand what's going on.

MORTGAGE REGULATIONS REGULATING MORTGAGE REGULATIONS

I received a flyer from a mortgage lender this week entitled "Quick Guide to New Mortgage Regulations". Sort of like describing the stimulus bill as a "Quick Guide to Economic Recovery".

The regulations are coming in layers now, with new regulations piled upon only slightly less new regulations, topping slightly older regulations which followed a long season of no regulation at all.

What it adds up to... obtaining a mortgage loan today (and trying to close a real estate transaction) is only a bit less challenging than trying to build a naval warship from the contents of the recycling bin in your garage.

Okay, I exaggerate, but only slightly.

Here's what the first paragraph of the "Quick Guide" said:

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) was signed into law and now includes new regulations for the mortgage industry under the Mortgage Disclosure Improvement Act (MDIA), which includes an amendment to the Truth In Lending (TIL) Act which changes disclosure requirements previously applied under RESPA. The Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) has also been adopted by FNMA (Fannie Mae) and FMHLC (Freddie Mac) to enhance the integrity and accuracy of home valuations as of May 1, 2009... blah, blah, blah.

Remember, this is the "Quick Guide"!

What you need to know is that your lender is now required to disclose more information to you, earlier in the process, and if anything changes that affects the APR of your loan, or you decide to buy down your rate, or finance a portion of your closing costs, or amend the terms of the contract to reflect a repair credit, the earliest your transaction can close is seven business days after the new, updated TIL is issued. And if you don't sign the new TIL (and wait the required number of days), you don't get the loan.

What this means is that we are likely to see more rocky landings with our closings... more stress-inducing 11th hour delays and more finger pointing than ever before. All to protect the consumer.

I'm not saying these new regulations are good or bad, but there's a lot of gray area to this entire process. People who have played by the rules are going to have to navigate through a lot of red tape to get to closing, and it will cause some perfectly legitimate deals to get crazy at the end.

That's about as quick as I can explain it.

THE SEVEN C'S OF STAGING

I've been getting in touch with my "right brain" lately. That's the creative side, and for a die-hard analytical, it's a bit of a journey into the unknown.

I'm reading "Staging to Sell" by Barb Schwarz, who is widely considered to be the inventor of what we refer to today as "staging" a home for sale. Even though I am not a right brain person, my left brain clearly understands and recognizes that staging works, which is why I always arrange for a professional staging consultation whenever I take a listing.

Johanna Wells is my stager, and she often plays "bad cop" to my "good cop". By that I mean, if I see clutter, colors, or crazy arrangements that are likely to send buyers sprinting back toward their cars, Johanna can point it out. I can preserve the relationship with my sellers, while Johanna can lay down the law.

Staging works. Based on 15 years of experience, this is indisputable. Buyers see, but they rarely envision. Buyers work from a WYSIWYG ("What You See Is What You Get") mindset. That's why making a home turnkey ready is critical, especially in markets where there is ample competition.

THE SEVEN C'S OF STAGING

From the book, Schwarz identifies the Seven C's of Staging:

CLEAN - you must deep clean, and this includes the spots we tend to forget like the top of the refrigerator, inside the cupboards, and along the window sills and tracks.

COLOR - dark rooms feel small, light rooms feel large. Green is tranquil and associated with prosperity, purple is harsh and overwhelming.

CLUTTER - buyers cannot mentally move into a space when it is occupied with stuff. Clutter eats equity.

CREATIVITY - our goal is to stage affordably. That means sometimes we simply rearrange the ingredients of items in a room. Something in the basement could look great in a bedroom... while stuff in the bedroom may belong in the basement (or Public Storage).

COMPROMISE - sometimes we can't fix everything. Painting the trim isn't as good as painting the whole house, but it helps. Instead of retiling a bathroom, we can change the color of the towels and shower curtain. When we can't change the substance, we can still change the feel.

COMMUNICATION - every room conveys a feeling. Light, bright and open... or dark, cluttered and mysterious. Buyers want certainty. We must work together to ensure each space communicates a warm and inviting feel.

COMMITMENT - once we've painted the canvas, it's important that you not put your fist through it! How you live in a home is different from how you sell a home. It will take work to preserve the staged feel that we have created. It's part of the process of selling a home, and it does involve commitment and some inconvenience. However, the payoff is worth it!

As I have said before in this space, the first 21 - 30 days are absolutely critical when listing homes for sale. Your best chance for a solid, full-price offer are in the first days, not 45 or 90 or 180 days down the road.

After 30 days, you're going to begin to bleed equity. We don't want that to happen.

In my opinion, pre-inspecting and staging a home for sale are critical components of an effective marketing plan. These two steps will also put your home above the competition, and justify a higher price.

Staging is one of those key activities you cannot afford to dismiss.

THE THREE MARKETS IN DENVER

At a Chamber of Commerce luncheon yesterday, I had the opportunity to discuss the state of the Denver Metro housing market with local business owners and community leaders.

Here is a summary of what I shared:

THREE MARKETS - THREE REALITIES

There are at least three distinct markets inside the larger Denver Metro housing market, and the realities buyers and sellers find are very different in each group.

RED HOT - $250,000 and below

This remains the red-hot sector of what Forbes Magazine now identifies as the top housing market in the country. Denver homes below $250,000 currently account for 28% of all listings and over 60% of all sales.

The market gets tighter as the prices get lower. The competition for foreclosures below $150,000 is beyond ridiculous. These homes are often attracting 10 or more offers and come off the market as soon as the bank gets around to choosing a winner as reams of paper pile up on the asset manager's desk.

There are three reasons homes continue to fly off the shelves at the lower price points:

1) $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit (currently set to expire November 30)

2) 30-year fixed rates in the low 5's (your payment will NEVER go up - where do you think rents will be in 10 years with all the money the Fed is currently printing?)

3) Value - 80% of Colorado's foreclosures have hit homes priced below $240,000... it's the entry level of the market that's taken the biggest hit in values, so that is where buyers (and investors) perceive the greatest value lies today

Pet peeve: the number of REO homes that continue to be left in ACTIVE status in the MLS when the agents know the banks already have a dozen or more offers and have made a decision. It drives me crazy, and it drives buyers crazy, too.

IMPROVING - $250,000 to $400,000

This segment of the market has shown improvement over the past 90 days.

Homes in this price range currently account for 28% of the listings, and 24% of all sales. That's a fairly balanced market.

The $8,000 FTB tax credit is having some positive impact here, but mostly below $300,000. In some neighborhoods, values are appreciating, but mostly the market is balanced and flat, with just a little appreciation in most areas (although there are always "hot pockets" inside larger markets). Very few foreclosures in this price range, at least at this time.

We'll see if rising unemployment leads to rising NED's.

TROUBLED - Above $400,000

The higher in price you go, the softer this market becomes. It's a new reality - small is the new big. A few years ago, everyone wanted 3,000 square foot new construction homes... today, it's the 1,700 square foot ranch built in the 70's (for half the price) that buyers want.

The market has shifted, and I don't see significant recovery here until 401k's return to their pre-2008 levels. It takes confidence to lay down a half-million dollars for a home, and the market really doesn't have it.

What we have today are a lot of high-end home owners who don't want to be high-end homeowners any more. Consider:

* Homes priced from $400,000 to $1 million account for 33% of all listings and just 15% of all sales

* Homes above $1 million account for 10% of all listings and just 2% of all sales

* Below $250,000, there are just 1.46 active listings (including all the short sales that clutter up the market) for each home under contract

* Above $1 million, there are nearly 21 active listings for each home under contract

The high end of the market is not only being hit with the effects of a down economy, but financing options remain extremely limited. There's just no one who wants to lend to the high end of the market, even if the borrower is qualified.

There is currently a 67 month inventory of homes above $1 million. Below $250,000, it's a 2.65 month supply. Below $150,000 it's less than a one month supply of homes. If it's bank-owned, it's under contract.

People who are locking in payments on affordably priced homes with interest rates in the 5's and receiving an $8,000 tax credit in what is widely identified now as one of the nation's best housing markets aren't taking on a ton of risk. Being able to own an entry-level home for less than it costs to rent is an aberration, and the true risk takers are those who think they are "playing it safe" by staying on the sidelines while interest rates rise and the economy recovers.

At the higher price points, the conversation is different. Maybe the $1 million market will come back some day... but maybe that day is five years off.

The quality of your decisions is based on the quality of your information, and if your agent isn't educating you about your segment of the market, you are at grave risk.

As you can see, there is not a single "housing market" in the Denver Metro region. There are at least three markets, and the realities people are experiencing in each sub-market are very different.

MASTERING WHAT IS POSSIBLE

The nature of sales involves risk, and sometimes rejection.

Sales are 100% commission-based, which means that there is high upside, and deep downside. Every single week, there are highs and lows in the world of sales. You have to get over it, and quickly.

I lost a listing last week… I never really had it, actually. I was simply in competition for it.

And being a (well-studied) student of the market, I came to my listing presentation prepared. I had both facts and compassion, but I did not bring a magic wand.

I lost a listing because I recommended listing the home at a saleable price, which (as it turns out) was about $15,000 below where the seller wanted to price it.

But please understand, a list price means nothing. The only price that matters in real estate is the price a ready, willing and able buyer will pay for a piece of property.

And it won’t be the number this property was listed at this morning.

I love referrals, and I love helping people. I believe the outcome you get is almost always directly tied to the quality of representation you receive.

So if I have listed your home at an artificially high and unrealistic price, am I serving you?

If I know in my heart it will take months to sell your home… that your property will get “stale” in the eyes of the market and it will eventually require multiple price cuts to move it… am I serving you?

If my intention in taking the listing is to know that I am going to have to “wait you out”… work you for multiple price reductions… pick up some sign and Internet calls and perhaps find a buyer for another, more reasonably priced piece of real estate along the way, am I serving you?

My job is not to get every listing I compete for… or to work with every buyer who is referred to me.

My job is to provide the information, service and negotiating skill to get the best possible price for my sellers, and to find the best possible home under the best possible terms for my buyers.

It hurts to lose a listing. That’s part of my job that I do not enjoy.

But if I am operating in the realm of what’s possible, and you are not, then it’s best that we don’t connect.

THE FIVE STAGES OF BUYERS' GRIEF (2009)

I received an insightful, amusing and analytically-correct email this week from a colleague in Southern California, where there's a rush for lower-end foreclosures that rivals what's been going on here in Colorado for the past six months.

And, like here, agents in other parts of the country are having a hard time helping their clients reconcile reality with what they hear in the media, from well-meaning friends and co-workers or "Uncle Vinny in New Jersey", who (allegedly) just bought a $900,000 home for $27 at an auction.

THE FIVE STAGES OF BUYERS' GRIEF (2009 version):

Denial - Buyers are adamant about not overpaying.

“The only house I’m buying is the one I can steal from the bank” is a common theme. Buyers read daily about how bad the economy is, how bad the real estate market is, and figure this might be a good opportunity. They begin their search.

Anger - As buyers beginning searching the Internet, they wonder where all the inventory went.

They surf the web in search of that steal, thinking that there will be plenty laying around. How hard can it be to find a deal? But then they realize that a cursory overview of the inventory produces junkers and over-priced turkeys. Anger begins to set in when they realize it isn’t going to be as easy as they thought.

Bargaining - Early on every buyer wants to make low offers - we’re stealing one, right?

But the good listings always seems to have competing offers, with 95% of the buyers chasing 5-10% of the inventory. The theory goes that the ones buying these homes are simply further along in the five stages of buyers’ grief - and they outbid you. Many buyers will lose out on 1-3 offers before succeeding.

Depression - It’s hard enough just to find a good deal, to then lose out on one or more is depressing.

Many give up for a while, deciding that it’s not meant to be, they’ll wait until the market comes down more, wait until the economy gets worse, banks unleash the shadow inventory, etc. But there’s a haunting feeling that it won’t get easier.

Acceptance - Buyers loosen up on their demand to steal one, and shift to acquisition mode.

By now most just want to get it over with, and accept that the successful search and purchase of a home is more time and energy-consuming than they thought. The next time they find a home that suits their needs, they step up a little sooner, reach a little higher than everyone else, and finally land one. They can handle the payment, there's still equity in the deal, and yes, you can file an amended tax return to get that $8,000 now!

Today’s buyers don’t like these feelings, and many will wait it out, hoping it’ll get easier, later. But with the government backstopping the markets, historic low interest rates, a fat tax credit for first-time buyers and banks being very deliberate about processing their short sales and REOs, it could be a long wait.

DENVER REGION CONTINUES TO SHINE IN NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT

The sun is rising on Colorado.

A year ago, it was hard to sell good news about the Rocky Mountain Region. About the only ones actively working the real estate market were investors, who were "cherry picking" lower-end deals as inventory piled up and many buyers stood on the sidelines.

But toward the end of last summer, there was a shift.

Between May and August of 2008, the number of active listings on the market (year-over-year) fell by more than 20%. The Federal Government stepped in and offered a $7,500 "tax credit" (really an interest free loan) to get people off the fence.

And foreclosures began to drop for the first time four years. As 2008 came to a close, we were seeing the first significant momentum at the entry level of our market in at least five years.

Over the first six months of this year, the demand for homes under $200,000 has been ridiculous, at least in comparison to the last few years. There are three key reasons for this:

1) Low intererst rates

2) A federal tax credit upped to $8,000 and made non-repayable for qualified first-time buyers

3) Tacit approval from a "late to the party" media, which finally began reporting some of the strength and value in our real estate market

I expect this trend to continue for the rest of 2009.

Interest rates are rising, however, responding to the positive economic news that has been generated by $1 trillion of federal stimulus money.

The tax credit may go away November 30 (I say "may" because there is already intense lobbying going on in Washington to extend, or even expand, the $8,000 first-time buyer credit next year).

And values are coming back... in the case of homes under $150,000, it's not unreasonable at all to say values have increased 10% or more (in some areas 20% or more) since last summer, when it seemed like investors were the only ones with the courage to step into the market.

In summary, I expect the market below $250,000 to continue to recover... but I see some of the value in this market segment slowly starting to erode as interest rates rise and prices continue to inch up. Buyers in this category, while still able to get great deals, are seeing their purchasing power diminsh by a little bit each month as rates and prices both rise.

From $250,000 to $400,000, there has been improvement only in the past few months... perhaps a "trickle up" effect from the new strength at the entry level. Below $300,000, the market is actually well balanced... above $300,000, it's a bit slower, but certainly better than it was in the winter and early spring.

Above $400,000, the market continues to be soft, and above $600,000, it's dead.

I have said repeatedly since last fall that the psychology in our market has changed. "Small is the new big". "Less is more". And caution has replaced excess as the rule of thumb in buying a new home.

If you're buying at a higher price point, make sure there is value in what you are buying. Don't be tricked into buying the biggest house on a lower-end block. Insist on some equity going in, so if things don't bounce back as quickly as you would like, you're not in a tight spot.

It's a little harder to play by these rules, but it's worth it.

I want to see my clients succeed, both now and for the long haul.

Exercise some discipline on the front end of a deal and your long term prospects will be much brighter.