Monday, May 31, 2010

THE FORECLOSURE CURVE: NATIONAL OUTLOOK IMPROVING

Found a series of very interesting charts this week in a new report from LPS (Lender Processing Services), one of the nation's leading providers of mortgage analytics. 

Over the next few days, we'll take a look at a couple of different charts, with some background on what they mean and how to interpret them.

Let's start with a bar chart on delinquencies dating back to 2006.  This chart shows the nationwide increase in foreclosure filings on a month by month basis over the past four years. 

Quite simply, this chart shows a significant stabilization of the nation's housing market over the past 24 months after foreclosure filing growth "topped out" in April of 2008. 

Remember that this chart reflects overall foreclosure filings, which is a leading indicator of the real estate market's economic health.  Some areas (like Colorado) are outperforming the curve, while others (like Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Michigan) continue to struggle.

Put it all together, though, and this chart makes a compelling argument for the Fed to start reigning in the easy money policies of the past two years.  Sooner or later, interest rates must rise.  And once the Fed thinks the housing market has stabilized, you can bet rate increases will be on the agenda.