Saturday, May 4, 2024

IN A SHIFTING MARKET, THE FIRST WEEK IS EVERYTHING

May is a pivotal transition month in the Denver real estate market as graduations happen, the school year ends and a much larger number of homes start to hit the market.

As of this week, there are now 6,623 active listings in the Denver MLS, which is up 51.9% from twelvemonths earlier.  With mortgage rates in the mid 7's, affordability is severely burdened and it's very possible we'll see a market that continues to slow through the balance of 2024.

With that being said, there are still buyers out there.  A total of 3,921 homes went under contract in April, down about 5% from the 4,149 homes that went under contract in April of 2023.  

But with 52% more active listings and 5% fewer contracts, you can see that buyers have a lot more choices, which means price and condition mean more than ever.

If you're attempting to sell a home in this environment, the first seven days on the market are absolutely critical to your success.  Consider the following:

* In April, all new listings in the Denver MLS averaged 7.85 showings in the first 7 days on the market.

* For listings that remained on the market at least 30 days, the average number of showings in the first month was 11.20.

* Properties that went pending in the first 8 days on the market averaged 16.35 showings.  

* For all active listings in the Denver MLS (regardless of time on market), the average number of showings per week was just 2.28.  

The key takeaways from this are as follows:

- Homes that went pending in the first week had more than twice as many showings as other new listings (16.35 vs 7.85).

- New listings that didn't sell in the first week averaged less than two additional showings a week for the balance of the first month.  

These numbers are a far cry from the insanity of 2020-2022, when many listings easily cleared 50 or more showings in a single weekend and any property that wasn't falling down generated 5 to 15 offers.

In multiple conversations I've had with buyers lately, I've said the same thing.  There are two types of homes on the market today - those that will sell in 7 days or less, and those that may not sell at all.

It's up to sellers to decide which column they want to land in.  For attractively priced homes that show well, showings are plentiful and multiple offers are still happening.

But for the mushy middle of the market - those homes that are just okay, possibly overpriced and not particularly interesting - being able to sell at all is no sure proposition.

For sellers, all focus right now needs to be on the first seven days of activity, when motivated buyers are coming through and interest is at its highest.  It's in this initial surge of activity that the market will pass judgement on your home.

If your value proposition is strong, interest will be also.

And if it's not, the market will let you know, often with silence.